5:20
he
Hongkong Telegraph.
HONGKONG, SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 17, 1894.
CHEAP SILVER, OR THE GOLD MONOPOLY.
One of the principal eventual results of the fall in the value of silver in its relation to gold will probably be the movement of the manufacturing centres from Europe and America to silver monometallic countries, such as Japan and China, which formerly had the advantage of cheaper labour—now rendered more so by the fall in silver; (for wages in silver remain the same in these countries, as does also the purchasing power of that metal as regards native produce and manufactures, which can supply all the necessities of the people. India, as a silver monometallic country, with cheap labour and freedom for all industries which could take root, grow, and flourish, was developing her trade enormously with the fall in silver giving her greater advantage over gold monometallic countries, like Great Britain. This was most noticeable in the growth of her trade in cotton yarn with China and Japan and her exports of tea and wheat to Europe, but other industries were likely to take root also, and flourish for the same reason that the cotton yarn trade and wheat trade thrived so well, cheap labour and a large market at her doors (the other densely populated countries of Asia for manufactured goods, and Europe for wheat). But India's promising prosperity has been suddenly cut down by the introduction of gold monometallism, the results of which will not be long in showing themselves. One of these will be the falling off of her exports of opium to China and the still more extended growth of the poppy in China to supply the demands of her own population; this will of course cause loss to the Indian exchequer, as also to the Peking Government, Japan (which above all is advancing with rapid bounds in every branch of manufacture) may be taken as the next country on which cheap silver will have most important effects, as industries there receive fair treatment, are fast taking root and flourishing. She has already, like India, benefited by the fall in silver; unlike India, however, her growing industries have not been blighted by the gold monopoly, but she is benefiting by its ill effects on other industrial countries, and, even when they are, by the injuries inflicted upon them by its continuance, brought to reason and adopt bimetallism, Japan will have been able to establish her industries (provided she adheres to silver monometallism) on such a firm basis that they will still be able with her cheap labour and other advantages to hold their own in the markets of Asia and America, if not elsewhere. It may here be noted that Japan, although not yet a ship-building country, may in the near future become so; already she figures as a steamship owner on no small scale (considering how recently she has emerged from a state of semi-barbarism) and is in the field as an ocean carrier, running steamers successfully not only on her own coasts but to ports in Siberia, Corea, China, the Philippine Islands, Sandwich Islands, Australia and India (this is due to a great extent to cheap silver), and now she is opening up banks in the ports where her trade has most developed, such as Shanghai and Hongkong, with a view to finance her own trade, also an indirect result of cheap silver. The raw materials for her new and growing industries she is seeking for yearly in more distant lands, as in the case of her cotton spinning and cotton weaving enterprises, the raw cotton for which she already imports from China, America, India, and even Egypt. The articles of a foreign type (imitations of foreign goods, perhaps at present inferior but very much cheaper and obtaining a ready sale in the large market, China) Japan now manufactures for home consumption and export would fill a long list if enumerated, and are daily increasing in value both as to quantity produced and variety of goods.
China, the country on which the effects of cheap silver are showing themselves in only a slightly less degree than in the case of India and Japan, may be next considered as to results already brought about and those which may be expected. As to those already evident it may be said that if her trade in cotton yarn and piece goods with Europe and India has not already all but entirely ceased it is on a fair way to do so and will cease so soon as Japan can produce sufficient to supply the market. As previously mentioned in considering India, that country was fast monopolising the cotton yarn trade in the East, whilst she was favoured by cheap silver, and ousting English yarn from the markets, mainly owing to the difference in cost of production (due to gold monometallism). In piece goods she would doubtless have done likewise were it not that Japan was already in the field. Other industries were likely to follow, though Japan already showed signs of taking to herself the monopoly of sundry manufactures requiring more enterprise, ingenuity, and skill in the labourer than is the case with spinning and weaving. Japan has besides the advantage of plentiful supplies of her own cheap coal, an important factor in all manufacturing enterprises. Since the gold standard has been introduced in India Japan has the field practically to herself (for China is not yet in it, because the few mills in Shanghai and Hankow, unless extended, as doubtless they now will be, are trifling competitors) and the advances made by Japan in the past quarter of a century, wonderful as they have been, are destined (should the present financial policies regarding the currency question remain unchanged in Europe, America, and Asia) to be eclipsed by the industrial progress of the next few years with its civilizing and elevating effects on the people, raising them and their country to a place of importance in the countries of the world such as Great Britain has gained and still holds, mainly through the wealth and strength gained by the industry of her people and with the continuance of which—now endangered by gold monometallism—alone it can be maintained.
The Foreign trade of China in cotton yarn and piece goods, which may be considered as the most important of her imports, now destined to fall entirely into the hands of Japanese manufacturers and merchants, can be taken as an example of what may be expected regarding her other imports, though in the case of some of them exceptional circumstances will prevent Japan from monopolizing them also, although she, with the present currency system, possesses so many advantages over Europe and America. The future effects of cheap silver on China depend greatly on the line of policy taken up by the officials in regard to the introduction of machinery for the manufacture in the first place of cotton yarn and textile fabrics; secondly on the encouragement or otherwise of mining, especially for coal and iron; thirdly the development of railways; and fourthly, on the establishment of manufactures other than cotton fabrics. If this is conducted, as at present, entirely under official control some progress may be made, but for reasons which I cannot enter upon, it will be very small and slow in development. If, as can hardly be expected, freedom is given to all to enter on the manufacture of goods by machinery and no difficulties are placed in the way of importing and establishing this machinery in factories or conducting the business and disposing of the products of same, great progress may be looked for and China will in a large measure supply the wants of her people in this line with her own productions in the course of a few years, and later, become an exporter of manufactured goods to other countries.
We may now consider the effects of cheap silver on the small but important colony of Hongkong at present labouring under its ill effects. The trade of Hongkong being mainly that of the import from Europe and elsewhere manufactured goods destined for the Chinese market and the export of China's raw products to Europe, America, etc., necessitating the financing of it being subject to the uncertainty in value of silver in relation to gold, the markets receiving China's raw products and supplying in return manufactured goods being gold monometallic countries, it is likely to suffer, as the trade of the whole world has suffered, from the present uncertainty as to the relative value of the two metals, but this it might hope to recover from when some definite policy has been arrived at as to whether bimetallism or monometallism is to prevail in Europe,
Page 337
5:20
he
Hongkong Telegraph.
HONGKONG, SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 17, 1894.
CHEAP SILVER, OR THE GOLD MONOPOLY.
One of the principal eventual results of the all in the value of silver in its relation to gold wil probably be the movement of the manufacturing centres from Europe and America to sliver monometallic countries, such as Japan and Chins, which formerly had the advantage of cheaper labour-now rendered more so by the fall in silver; (for wages in silver remain the same in these countries, as does alse the purchasing power of that metal as regards native produce and manufactures, which can supply all the necessition of the people. India, as a silver monometallic country, with cheap labour and free- dom for all industries which could take root, grow, and flourish, was developing her trade enormously with the fall in silver giving her greater advan tage over gold monometallic countries, like Great Britain. This was most noticeable in the growth of her trade in cotton yarn with China and Japan and her exports of tex and wheat to Europe, but other industries were likely to take toot also, and flourish for the same reason that the cotton yarn trade and wheat trade thrived so well, cheap labour and a large market at her doors (the other densely populated countries of Asia for man- factured goods, and Europe for wheat). But India's promising prosperity has been suddenly cut down by the introduction of gold monome- tallism, the results of which will not be long in showing themselves. One of these will be the falling off of her exports of optum to China and the still more extended growth of the poppy in China to supply the demands of her own popula- tion; this will of course cause loss to the Indian exchequer, as also to the Peking Government, Japan (which above all is advancing with rapid bounds in every branch of manufacture) may be taken as the next country on which cheap silver will have most important effects, as industries there receive fair treatment, are fast taking root and flourishlog. She has already, like India, benefited by the fall in silver; unlike India, however, her growing industries have not been blighted by the gold monopoly, but she is bene- fing by its ill effects on other industrial coun- tries, and, even when they are, by the injuries inflicted upon them by its continuance, brought to reason and adopt, as they must eventually do, installim, Japan will bave been able to estaba Ish her industries (provided she adheres to silver monometallism) on such a firm basis that they will still be able with her cheap labour and other advantages to hold their own in the markets of Asia and America, if not elsewhere. It may here be noted that Japan, although not yet a ship-buliding country, may in the near future become so; already she figures as a steamship owner on no small scale (considering how recently she has emerged from a state of semi-barbarism) and is in the field as an ocean carrier, running steamers successfully not only on her own coasts bat to parts in Siberia, Cores, China, the Philippine Islands, Sandwich Islands, Australia and India (this is due to a great extent to cheap silver), and now she is opening up banks in the ports where her trade has most developed, such as Shanghai and Hongkong, with a view to finance her own trade, also an indirect result of ¦ cheap silver. The raw materials for her new and growing industries she is seeking for yearly in more distant lands, as in the case of her cotton spinning and cotton weaving enterprises, the raw cotton for which she already imports from Chioa, America, India, and even Egypt. The articles of a foreign type (imitations of foreign goods, perhaps at present inferior but very much cheaper and obtaining a ready sale in the large market, China) Japan now manufactures for home consumption and export would fill a long list if ennumerated, and are dally increasing in value both as to quantity produced and variety of goods.
China, the country on which the effects of cheap silver are showing themselves in only z slightly less degree than in the case of India and
Japan, may be next considered as to results already brought about and those which may be expected. As to those already evident it may be said that if her trade in cotton yarn and piece goods with Europe and India has not already all but entirely ceased it is on a fair way to do so and will cease so soon as Jpan can produce sufficient to supply the market. As previously mentioned in considering India, that country was fast monopolising the cotton yarn trade in the East, whlist she was favoured by cheap silver, and ousting English yarn from the markets, mainly owing to the difference in cost of production (due to gold monometallism). In piece goods she would doubtless bave done likewise were it not that Japan was already in the field. Other industries were likely to follow, though Japan already showed signs of taking to herself the monopoly of sundry manufactures requt Ing more enterprise, ingenuity, and skill in the labourer than is the case with spinning and weaving. Japan has besides the advantage of plentiful supplies of her own cheap coal, an important factor in all manufacturing enterprises. Since the gold standard has been introduced In India Japan has the field practically to herself (for China is not yet in it, because the few mills In Shanghai and Hankow, unless extended, as doubtless they now will be, are triûing com. petitors) and the advances made by Japan in the past quarter of a century, wonderful as they have been, are destined (should the present financial policies regarding the currency question remain unchanged in Europe, America, and Asia) to be eclipsed by the industrial progress of the next few years with its civilizing and elevat- ing effects on the people, raising them and their country to a place of importance in the countries of the world such as Great Britian has gained and still holds, mainly through the wealth and strength gained by the fodustry of her people and with the continuance of which- now endangered by gold monometallism-alone It can be maintained.
The Foreign trade of China in cotton yarn and plece goods, which may be considered as the most important of her imports, now destined to fall entirely into the hands of Japanese manu- facturers and merchants, can be taken as an example of what may be expected regarding her other imparts, though in the case of some of them exceptional circumstances will prevent Japan from monopolizing them also, although she, with the present currency system, possesses so many advantages over Europe and America. The future affects of cheap silver on China depend greatly on the line of policy taken up by the officials in regard to the introduction of machinery for the manufacture in the first place of cotton yarn and texile fabrics; secondly on the encouragement or otherwise of mining, especially for coal and iron; thirdly the developement of railways; and fourthly, on the establishment of manufactures other than cotton fabrics. If this Is conducted, as at present, entirely under official control some progress may be made, but for reasons which I cannot enter upon, it will be very amall and slow in developement. If, as can hardly be expected, freedom is given to all to enter on the manufacture of goods by machinery and no difficulties are placed in the way of import- ing and establishing this machinery in factorles or conducting the business and disposing of the products of same, great progress may be looked for and China will in a large measure supply the wants of her people in this line with her own productions in the course of a few years, and later, become an exporter of manufactured goods to other countries.
We may now consider the effects of cheap allver on the small but important colony of Hongkong 'at prezent labouring under its fil effects. The trade of Hongkong being mainly that of the Import from Europe and elsewhere manufactured goods destined for the Chinese market and the export of China's raw products to Europe, America, etc., necessitating the finan- eing of it being subject to the uncertainty in value of silver in relation to gold, the markets recalving China's raw products and supplying in return manufactured goods being gold mono- metallic countries, it is likely to suffer, as the trade of the whole world has suffered, from the present uncertainty as to the relative value of the two metals, but this it might hope to recover from when some arrived at as to monometallism is
definite policy has been whether bimetallison or to prevail in Europe,
337
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